Undermining Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, Kakhovka Dam

Kakhovka Dam

Scenarios for the development of the disaster

Catastrophe cascade

Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station is one of the glorious objects of the Great Communist construction projects of the Soviet Union. The city of Novaya Kakhovka was created just for serving the personnel of the hydroelectric power station and family members. The hydroelectric complex was put into operation simultaneously with the completion of the installation of the sixth hydroelectric unit of the station in 1956. This is a typical lowland hydroelectric power station, the lowest of the cascade of Dnieper dams. The total length of the dam is more than 3.8 kilometers and it holds the Kakhovka reservoir with a volume of 18.2 cubic kilometers. This is the largest reservoir on the Dnieper and at the same time the main source of water supply for the entire south. Only a 16.5-meter dam, which Ukrainian nationalists threaten to blow up, keeps the giant mass of water from breaking through. The terrorist act pursues several goals at once. The first is the physical destruction of the civilian population who wished to go under the wing of Russia. The territory downstream of the Dnieper is now part of Russian territory, and therefore the attitude of the nationalists towards it is appropriate. The second reason for encroachments on dams is the destruction of pontoon crossings in the Kherson region. They are used both to supply the group of Russian troops on the left bank of the Dnieper, and as a humanitarian corridor between the regions of Kherson.

The first information about the preparation by Kiev of a massive missile attack on the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station appeared on October 18. According to the commander of the Russian troops in the special military operation zone, Army General Sergei Surovikin, "these actions can lead to the destruction of the infrastructure of a large industrial center and heavy civilian casualties." We can say that a hydroelectric power plant is a well-targeted target for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Nationalist rockets and shells have been destroying the railway and road bridges on the dam since the summer. The object is within reach of both cannon artillery and HIMARS guided missiles. On October 19, according to representatives of the local military-civilian administration of the Kherson region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continued to strike at the dam. Of course destroying a powerful hydraulic structure at once will not work, simply because the nationalists do not have the appropriate weapons for this. There are no concrete-piercing ammunition in the range of missiles of the GMLRS family - this is weapons more focused on the destruction of manpower and light equipment. But methodical and purposeful strikes on the body of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station can cause a dam breakthrough. Of course, nationalists can use not only guided missiles, but "smart" 152-mm Excalibur projectile. According to estimates, concentrated fire with the means available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine can cause the dam to break as early as the second or third day. This is taking into account the effective operation of local air defense. And here everything will depend on what level the Kakhovka reservoir is now.

What is being done now to level the threat of a large-scale terrorist attack by the Kyiv regime? According to the Acting Governor of the Kherson region Volodymyr Saldo, an intensive water discharge has been organized through the dam, and the population is being evacuated from the left bank of the Dnieper. At the same time, the discharge from the Kakhovka reservoir can be increased through the North Crimean Canal, located upstream. And here we come to the whole cascade of disasters that can cause the destruction of the dam.

Reason for escalation

Modeling the consequences of the destruction of the hydroelectric dam paints an apocalyptic picture for the Kherson region. In the most negative scenario of the development of events, the nationalists manage to destroy the dam. To do this, they use both the above-mentioned guided missiles and missiles, as well as anchored river mines, which have already been brought in near the Gavrilovka settlement. Do not rule out sabotage. For example, in the UK, nationalists have been trained for several months to work with underwater uninhabited vehicles. And although the average depth of the Kakhovka reservoir is not so great - only eight meters, but it is quite enough to get to the upstream of the dam. Someone say fantasy? But many people believed that in the fall of 2022, gas pipelines at the bottom of the Baltic Sea and a truck filled with explosives would be blown up. on the Crimean bridge? Even in the summer it seemed, if not impossible, then very unlikely. And now the probability of undermining the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station by underwater vehicles is unlikely, but not zero. Only the high eutrophication of practically stagnant water in the reservoir can interfere. Simply put, operators will not see anything in muddy waters. However, in October, even the most flowering reservoirs become transparent to a certain extent.

In any case, the situation will become catastrophic when one of the sections of the dam is destroyed to the ground. Kilometers of water accumulated in the reservoir will equalize the level before and after the HPP in just a couple of days. The wave will sweep away the regional center Golaya Pristan, as well as several small settlements. On the left-bank part of Kherson, the water will rise by 2-2.5 meters - things will not come to total chaos, but a sanitary catastrophe is guaranteed. Local authorities will either have to evacuate up to fifty thousand of the local population, or fight infections and other flood delights for months. Not to mention the difficulties of the approaching winter.

The most rapid and catastrophic consequences await the inhabitants of the territories downstream of the Kakhovskaya HPP. Larger events will unfold above the dam, even if they are not so swift. The main thing here is a drop in the level of the reservoir by several meters. The fact is that since the 50s of the last century, the Soviet infrastructure (later - Ukrainian) was imprisoned for the volumes of the Kakhovka reservoir in its current state. The rapid flow of water will expose the water intakes of most settlements on the coast. First of all, the 50,000th Energodar. The emergency services will not be able to quickly cope with the consequences of the disaster in the conditions of hostilities - this will take months. If, downstream of the Dnieper, the water eventually recedes, allowing hope for a stabilization of the sanitary condition, then at the top of the hydroelectric power station it will be possible to forget about the previous level of the reservoir for years. Even if the dam is promptly restored. By the way, in the 1950s, the Kakhovskoye Sea occupied its shores for more than two years.

In addition to sanitary problems, there are also serious technical risks. Thus, the cooling system of the Zaporizhzhya NPP is fed from the waters of the reservoir. Here the need is so great that no promptly drilled wells can solve the problem. In addition, drilling will have to be deeper than usual - with the loss of water from the storage, the groundwater level will decrease. It is unnecessary to comment on what the overheating of the reactor cores of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe could threaten. We only note that the dispersion of several tens of tons of uranium fuel as a result of an accident is much more serious than the consequences of a nuclear strike. Of course, without taking into account the destruction from the shock wave.

The North Crimean Canal, unblocked by Russian troops, is fed from the Kakhovka Reservoir. It is through it that the peninsula receives water. Reducing the water level by 5-8 meters is guaranteed to leave several million people without fresh water. However, similar nationalists have already practiced in history.

Do not forget about the delayed consequences of dehydration of the territory. The south of Ukraine is very dependent on irrigation by the waters of the Kakhovka reservoir. This is where the agriculture of an essentially arid region lives. The 130-kilometer Kakhovka canal originates from the reservoir and is the key to the irrigation system in the south of the Kherson region. The negative effect of its draining will be felt by hundreds of thousands of people next autumn, when the harvest is missing.

Few facts serve as a weak hope for the sanity of the Kyiv regime. Firstly, the Kakhovskaya HPP is a critical infrastructure facility in Russia. The terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge has already cost Ukraine a third of its power plants. It is not known to what level the Kiev regime will descend under Russian blows after the Kakhovka dam is blown up. Secondly, the destruction of the dam and the subsequent decrease in the level in the reservoir will entail a humanitarian catastrophe in the territories that are still under the control of Kyiv. For example, a canal to Krivoy Rog originates from the reservoir, and this is Zelensky's small homeland with a population of 600,000. The watercourse is far from the only source of water supply, but a dry canal may well cause the migration of the population from the city. The water intakes of the Nikopol agglomeration with a population of more than 300 thousand people will become shallow, located on the left bank of the reservoir. However, humanitarian issues in relation to their own population have always been of little concern to the Kiev leadership, so it remains only to rely on the fear of Russian retribution.

The Chinese are actively discussing Ukraine's undermining of the Kakhovskaya HPP dam.

What is telling is that the public is massively technically literate and immediately rejects the "it was Russia with a missile" innuendo, understanding the scale of the dam, its strength, and the fact that such missiles do not exist (well, not counting tactical nuclear missiles, but then the landscape at the site of the event would be very different).

Blaming the Kremlin

For blowing up the dam, we immediately ask ourselves a question.

Why is the Kremlin doing this?

According to the logic that the Office of the President and propaganda channels want to instill in everyone, the Russians foolishly banged the dam and create problems for themselves with the provision of Crimea and even Berdyansk with water, the shallowing of the Kakhovka reservoir and the threat of an offensive in this direction, they themselves washed away their defensive ranks in the Kherson region, create some problems for the subsequent functioning of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), give Zelensky a trump card to speak again in all the world's media, dispersing the thesis that the Russian Federation is a terrorist country, demanding new weapons, money and sanctions.

Satellite images from the past few days suggest structural damage to the dam occurred before tonight.

Remember, it was the Ukrainians that shelled the dam with intensity and actually suggested blowing up the dam as a tactic.Image

Regarding the comical statements that it was the RF Armed Forces themselves that blew up the Kakhovskaya HPP, then:

During the war, the Armed Forces of Ukraine repeatedly fired at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, including the collapsed fragments of the dam, inflicting direct damage to them.

The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine openly stated that it was shelling the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station in order to destroy it and flood the territory of the Kherson region for military purposes.

Ukrainian propaganda openly threatened for many months with the destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, in order to flood the left bank of the Dnieper and cut off the water supply to Crimea.

Ukraine several times deliberately dumped water from the Zaporizhzhya hydroelectric power station, which led to an increase in the water level. In particular, last fall, when there was a lot of talk about a possible undermining of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, and literally on the eve of the destruction of the hydroelectric power station on the night of June 6th.

From a military point of view, flooding will create more problems for the RF Armed Forces than for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, because the RF Armed Forces will lose part of the defensive ground and minefields that will have to be created in the second circle after flooding.

Against the backdrop of the loss of Artemovsk and the failure of attempts to advance in the area of the Vremievsky ledge, Ukraine urgently needed another "bucha" in order to shift the focus from recent military failures.

The destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP will not bring special benefits to Russia, because if the activity of the DRG on the islands in the Kherson region is difficult due to flooding, the situation on the coast of the Dnieper north of the Kakhovskaya HPP, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine can also carry out attacks in the interests of supporting offensive attempts, may become more complicated on the Zaporozhye offensive, especially if the goal is to capture the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant.

In this case, we have a motive, opportunities, proven facts of previous attacks of the Kakhovskaya HPP and documented confessions of the criminals that they are planning to commit a terrorist act by destroying the Kakhovskaya HPP.

150 tons of engine oil got into the Dnipro due to the explosion of the hydroelectric power station - OP of Ukraine

At the meeting, the National Security and Defense Council also warned that there is a risk of further leakage of more than 300 tons of oil into the river.

Plans of the Ukrainian high command to blow up the Nova Kahrkovska dam

On December 2022 The Washington Post reported about the plans of the Ukrainian high command to blow up the Nova Kahrkovska dam with the intention of cutting all Russian supply lines. The Ukrainians actually carried 3 strikes with American Himars rockets on one of the gates as a "test" to be ready in the future. The blowing of dam was always on the plans of the Ukrainian army even as a "last resort":

Dnieper River in the Kherson region. The dam and two other river crossings were key targets in the offensive. (AP)

Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper's water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages.

The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort.

The situation after the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station

Readers are worried about how damage to the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric dam will affect the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, which takes water from the reservoir propped up by this dam.

In short, it doesn't matter, everything is fine.

Now more. During operation, a nuclear reactor requires a large volume of water for cooling. There are six reactors at ZNPP (1 in the diagram), and for their cooling, a cooling pond (2) filled from the Kakhovka reservoir, as well as two cooling towers (3) are regularly used.

At the Kakhovka dam, only the crest and gates are damaged, the water level in the reservoir may fall by two or three meters because of this, which is within the limits of seasonal fluctuations. That is, now even the regular operation of the station at full power would not be disrupted.

The station, however, has been shut down since last September and placed on cold shutdown. Water is still needed to cool the fuel remaining in reactors and spent fuel pools, but it is orders of magnitude less than for reactors at power. For this, there will be enough water from the Dnieper even in the event of a complete destruction of the dam and the descent of the reservoir, which, we recall, has not yet happened.

The station was designed by Soviet engineers, they foresaw everything, even war. 

Ukraine flooding reservoir

2 weeks prior to the dam collapse, Ukraine flooded the Kakhovka reservoir.
Days after, four locks for water discharge were opened at the Dnieper hydroelectric power station - the Kiev regime is purposefully drowning the Kherson region.

Who blew up the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station? Short.

Russia?:

1) The Russian army could open the floodgates and flood everything that was needed in a controlled manner. When to close.

2) Russia will restore the HPP. Like everything in the former Ukraine. The junta does not need land, cities, buildings, or people.

3) Flooding created problems for the region and for Crimea.

4) Blow up and blame Ukraine? The Armed Forces of Ukraine, without the help of our army, cope with the role of a Nazi and a terrorist.

5) Protect the Crimea and Kherson from a counteroffensive? The positions of Ukraine during the offensive were unfavorable, and for this they retreated from Kherson. When attacked, tarasiki would die, as in Bakhmut, in batches, without a chance of success.

6) The explosion of the hydroelectric power station complicates (but does not make it impossible) the future liberation of Kherson and, further, Nikolaevshchina, Odessa and access to Predniestrovnia.

Ukraine?:

1) Counterattack on Crimea is now impossible. Everything is flooded, gentlemen, the crests are not to blame. Give new equipment, money and silently.

2) Only Ukraine could so thoughtlessly and barbarously destroy the hydroelectric power station, spitting on the consequences: it flooded the territory, people, deprived of drinking water - the handwriting of the Ukrainians. The forced step of the loser.

3) Not many (!) Western media, who accused Russia of the explosion in the first hours, quickly backed down and rewrote loud headlines to the neutral "Explosion in Ukraine". And this is an indicator. Even the rabid propaganda of the enemy does not believe in Russia's involvement and does not dare to blame our army.

4) And the most important profit from the explosion of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. There is no counteroffensive, to which the Americans are driving the Ukrainians, and there is no inevitable defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Zelensky extends his reign.