Wagner Prigozhin Rebellion in Russia

Introduction

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Wagner, a private military company, recently released a video and audio recordings accusing the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of launching a missile strike on a Wagner HQ camp. He further claimed that he and 25,000 Wagner troops were undertaking a "March of Justice" to hold responsible individuals, including the leaders of Wagner and the Russian MoD, accountable. Prigozhin has previously criticized the Russian MoD, alleging sabotage and genocidal acts against Russians. Russian authorities have responded by denouncing Prigozhin's claims as misinformation and initiating a criminal case against him for inciting armed rebellion. The situation has prompted security measures and negotiations to de-escalate tensions.

Prigozhin's Criticism of Russian MoD

Yevgeny Prigozhin has repeatedly made public statements accusing the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense of deliberately undermining Wagner's effectiveness and perpetrating genocide against Russians. However, the transparency of his criticism has been questioned, as Wagner's effectiveness seemed unaffected despite his claims of ammunition shortages imposed by Shoigu, the Russian MoD's head. Prigozhin previously released a video suggesting that personal gain motivated the leaders of the Russian MoD to initiate the Ukraine invasion.

Russian Response

Russian authorities, including the Russian MoD, FSB, Prosecutors Office, and the Kremlin, have issued statements in response to Prigozhin's allegations. The Russian Ministry of Defense declared that the videos and messages shared by Prigozhin on social networks regarding the alleged strike on Wagner's rear camps by the MoD were not based on reality but were an act of informational provocation. The FSB initiated a criminal case against Prigozhin for inciting armed rebellion, considering the situation's potential for escalation. President Vladimir Putin announced his intention to hold discussions with other heads of state to address the situation, and the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation assured the legality of the actions taken.

Russian national guard rosgvardia Rostov-on-Don

Appeal of General of the Army Sergei Surovikin and Lieutenant General Alekseev V.S. to the fighters of PMC "Wagner"

Putin's address to the citizens of Russia

Russian Response Measures

To ensure security, the Russian national guard, Rosgvardia, deployed forces in Moscow, Voronezh, and Rostov-on-Don, establishing roadblocks in Moscow. A Russian helicopter destroyed an oil depot in Voronezh, allegedly to prevent Wagner from refueling their vehicles. The Chechen army, Akhmat, was deployed toward Rostov-on-Don. Prigozhin's various businesses and outlets, including a business center in St. Petersburg, faced investigations, and Wagner and Prigozhin's online platforms were shut down on multiple online platforms.

Oil depot exploded in Voronezh

Akhmat heading to Rostov-on-Don

March of Justice

Despite the escalating tensions, Prigozhin proceeded with the March of Justice, marching onto Rostov-on-Don after releasing the audio recordings. On June 24th, the Wagners arrived in Rostov-on-Don, engaging in calm discussions with Russian military leaders and interacting with the local population peacefully. They strategically secured key points in the city. Later, they moved towards Voronezh, heading in the direction of Moscow. Reports of clashes between the Wagners and Russian helicopters emerged, with claims of multiple helicopters being shot down and pilot casualties. No losses were reported on the Wagner side.

Wagner convoy heading towards Rostov-on-Don

Wagner seize Russias war HQ in Rostov-on-Don

Civilians in Rostov-on-Don

Civilians speaking to Wagners

Sides and Negotiations

Several world leaders, including those from Belarus, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Iran, and Abkhazia, expressed their support for Russia amid the ongoing situation. Videos were released, showing Russian servicemen and Wagners pledging loyalty to Vladimir Putin and suggesting that Prigozhin had misled them. In Rostov-on-Don, there were mixed sentiments among the population regarding Wagner, but the overall atmosphere remained calm. Prigozhin was regarded as a traitor by many Russians on social media. Negotiations between President Lukashenko of Belarus and Prigozhin took place, resulting in an agreement to halt the movement of Wagner personnel within Russia and take further steps to de-escalate the situation.

Motive and Remaining Grievances

While there were initial speculations about external enemies infiltrating Wagner and the involvement of the $6.2 billion Pentagon accounting mistake in the rebellion, Lukashenko's negotiations and the subsequent de-escalation make these scenarios less likely. Prigozhin's original grievances against the leaders of the Russian Ministry of Defense, particularly Shoigu, continue to be a focal point amidst the ongoing situation.

Casualties and Ukrainian Involvement

The number of casualties is currently reported at 15, but further details are yet to be confirmed. Throughout the situation, Ukraine has been accused of exacerbating tensions by providing informational support through fake news, simultaneously hoping for potential division and civil unrest among the parties involved.

Ending

As the story unfolded, it concluded with Wagner, under the leadership of Prigozhin, finding a base in Belarus. To preserve the image of the Russian ministers and the president, a third party was involved in "resolving" the conflict. Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary, revealed that Lukashenko had a longstanding relationship with Prigozhin spanning over 20 years. This arrangement allowed for a resolution that allowed all parties involved to save face.